Betting on a match means that you have a literal stake in the game. While it makes the experience that much more exciting, there’s also quite a lot of risk. A lot of people lose when betting on football, which is part of gambling. So, how can you be responsible when placing soccer wagers?
Successful & Responsible Football Betting: Is It Possible?
Firstly, let’s get one thing straight. You can’t guarantee that you’ll ever be successful when gambling. That’s why they call it gambling, after all. Nothing is certain about it. There’s always risk involved.
That said, gambling on football isn’t entirely random either. If you’re not certain that football is your sport, you’d better not risk it. Check out our betting strategies page and find e discipline that suits you most. While there are countless variables influencing the outcome of a match, skilled oddsmakers can still weigh them. And that is the essence of being responsible when betting. It involves assessing the situation more accurately than the bookies themselves.
That’s a tall order. While extremely skilled and devoted football fans may have information rivalling an oddsmaker, it’s highly unlikely. So, how can you face off against the bookmakers and come out risking less? Well, there’s a few basic approaches.
First and foremost, you need to know the game better than the back of your hand. Focus on the leagues and teams that you know best, and learn everything there is to know. Study players, outcomes, and historical statistics.
Remember to keep up with the latest news and interviews; you know that the bookies will! If you want a chance to identify the most valuable bets, then you need to become a football expert. It won’t guarantee success, but it lowers the likelihood of failure.
Up next, you have to wrap your head around the values. Search for bookies with the best odds, which will boost your game. Furthermore, make sure you understand every market available to you. Furthermore, you have to be able to figure out implied odds at a glance.
Every time that a bookmaker offers odds for a market, it’s a statement. The bookies are telling you the perceived probability of an outcome. It’s a crucial value for decision-making in football betting.
If you’re betting on football and want to gamble responsibly, then you’ll definitely need a strategy. Developing a strategy is easier said than done. Most likely, you’ll pick up a strategy online, from a book or from a friend.
Regardless of your source, it’s essential that you understand your strategy. More than a cookbook recipe, a strategy is a compass. It can point you in the right direction, but you still need to be able to navigate your way there.
Tried Football Betting Strategies
Finally, let’s get down to business. Now that you know the basics for being responsible with football betting, it’s time to talk strategy. We’ve assembled the best, proven strategies for betting on football. We’ll list and explain them in some detail below. Please keep in mind that while these strategies are known to work, they still carry some element of risk.
While some strategies do minimise risk, sometimes cancelling risk out altogether, certain betting parlours frown upon these. Make sure that you carefully comb through the terms and conditions of any betting site you’re using. This is essential if you follow a risk minimisation strategy!
Matched Betting
Surely you’ve noticed the many betting sites that offer no deposit bonuses to new players. Often, you’ll need to bet these bonuses before you can actually withdraw them.
A matched betting strategy places a wager using the full bonus amount. Then, players look for a wager on a betting exchange covering the opposite side of the bet. In a 2-way event, this guarantees that no matter the outcome, players risk less.
Simple enough, right? Plus, there are many advantages to matched betting. When done correctly, it’s essentially with lower risk. Additionally, you don’t need a huge bankroll to do it, unlike other strategies. However, there are several complications to consider.
For starters, you depend on matched betting promotions to carry out your strategy. Since those promotions are most often targeted at new players, they can quickly become scarce.
Furthermore, matched betting usually has consequences. Bookmakers often frown upon matched betting strategies. While placing your matched bet at a betting exchange keeps your activities hidden, bookies still spot matched bettors quite quickly.
Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting works in a very similar way to matched betting. However, instead of using bonus funds, you use your own bankroll. This is how it works. Say you find a two-way betting market for an event. Arbitrage bets consist of wagers on both possible outcomes, at odds and stakes that guarantee that you’ll be risking less when staking. Now, we’ll go over the concept using a simple example.
Let’s say there are two possible outcomes to a sporting event. One has odds of 2/1, while the other has odds of 3/1. A ￡/$/€333 stake on the first outcome, and a ￡/$/€250 stake on the second outcome, guarantee a profit on both ends.
If your ￡/$/€333 wager pays off, you’ll be receiving ￡/$/€1,000. If your ￡/$/€250 stake pays off, you’ll be receiving ￡/$/€1,000. In either case, you’re making ￡/$/€1000 on a ￡/$/€583 wager. Of course, this example is the stuff of dreams.
In reality, most arbitrage bets have a ROI of between 1-4%. Becoming successful arbing, therefore, requires a substantial bankroll. The catch is that you need to track down odds that actually add up to a potential profits.
With the internet, it’s easier than ever before. However, most operators frown upon it, and will limit accounts suspected of “arbing”.
Exchange Scalping
Exchange scalping, or trading, is a recent development, largely following the rise of online betting exchanges in the past few years. It’s essentially a speciality form of arbitrage betting. Scalping takes advantage of the emergence of back and lay bet systems.
A “back” or “backing” bet is a conventional wager, “backing” an outcome in an event. A “lay” bet, on the other hand, is a wager against that same outcome. By carefully shopping among betting lines at many exchanges, canny bettors can identify opportunities to lock in value odds.
That part works much the same as arbitrage betting does. You find odds that, when combined, may result in better outcomes. Then, you place your wagers at carefully calculated stakes. Sounds simple enough. However, identifying those opportunities is harder than you’d think.
That’s why exchange scalping can have an even lower ROI than arbing. Additionally, bookmakers don’t exactly look kindly upon scalping. It can be rather easy to identify, particularly considering that you need a high betting volume to get anywhere.
1.01 Betting
1.01 betting is one of the simplest football betting strategies around. Nevertheless, 1.01 betting can be a reliable tactic for football betting. So, what is 1.01 betting all about?
1.01 refers to decimal odds. In standard British odds, it’s the equivalent of 1/100 odds. Basically, it’s the lowest odds that bookies will quote. Essentially, it means that bookies are estimating a 99% probability for a given outcome. A sure thing.
By betting on these outcomes, you can receive relatively safe, reliable bets. Making ￡1 on a ￡100 bet isn’t much, which is why 1.01 betting is all about volume. A series of daily 1.01 wagers will have your bankroll steadily rising higher.
If you think the ROI of 1.01 betting is 1%, you’d be wrong. The 1% ROI only applies to the times your wager wins. Upsets do happen. They are rare at 1/100 odds, but they do take place. This can be a catastrophic setback for a 1.01 betting strategy, as you’d need 100 wins to make up for a single loss.
Value Betting
At its core, value betting is perhaps the most technical football betting strategy. It promises the highest ROI of all proven football betting strategies. However, it lacks the risk minimisation of matched betting, arbing or scalping.
Value betting is all about tracking down undervalued odds. The same way that arbitrage bettors track down the best odds for a given market. The difference here is that you only wager on one side of the action.
This means that you aren’t covering all your bases. Risk is a factor, and you can certainly lose a value bet. However, if you only place value bets, then chances are that you’ll come out on top in the long run. The reason is that value bets are, specifically, bets with odds priced below their actual probability.
For example, let’s say a market is priced at 1/4. This means that the bookie set the implied probability of that outcome at 80%. If that outcome’s probability is actually 90%, then you’re betting at undervalued odds. In the long run, the variance can make you run into harsh losing streaks. With sufficient liquidity, though, value bets are a robust strategy.
Tips For Football Betting
Determined to bet responsibly? Here are a few final tips for you to consider.
- Study Statistics
If maths have never been your strong suit, then you’ll need to reconsider your gambling career. Or start amending the situation. Fortunately, you don’t need to be an expert in calculus. You do need to have a firm grasp of many basic concepts from the meaning of statistics in sports betting, though. If that doesn’t sound like your style, you’re bound to run into trouble. Reading implied odds, identifying value bets and arbitrage opportunities all require a knowledge of statistics. - Keep Track Of Your Wagers
To risk less betting on football, you’ll need to be able to tell whether you’re actually doing the right thing. In order to do that, you’ll have to keep track of your wagers. It can be as low-tech as a notebook, or as complex as a customised spreadsheet. Whatever feels most comfortable to you. What matters is that you have a log of your wagers, so that you can assess how effective your strategy is. - Use Line Shopping Tools
Successful arbitrage betting matched betting or scalping all require a broad range of betting lines for comparison. While the internet greatly simplifies this process, it’s still quite cumbersome. Looking up an event in dozens of sites is terribly time-consuming. Today, there are many line shopping tools, such as matched betting websites or arbitrage betting assistants. These tools can make following a betting strategy much easier. They do all of the heavy lifting. All you need to do is place the bets. - Manage Your Bankroll
Finally, there’s bankroll management to consider. Generally speaking, all strategies are bound to run into dry spells now and then. If your betting strategy is taking in too many losses too quickly, your bankroll might run out before your luck turns. Make sure you bet at stakes that give you plenty of slack to recover from a bad streak. For example, on a ￡/€/$1,000 budget, laying ￡/€/$10 bets gives you 100 bets to work with. Ample time to recover from a bad streak. On a ￡/€/$100 budget, though, ￡/€/$10 bets are 10% of your bankroll. - Don’t place emotional bets
There’s no arguing that football has some of the most passionate fans, and since you are reading this, you are probably among them. With that said, we suggest to avoid placing emotional bets. Even if you get lucky once or twice, the chances of losing your bet are much higher. - Take a break when things are not going well
Have you ever heard of the word “TILT? This is common among casino players, but our observations show it is getting more popular in sports betting. If you are on a losing streak while betting on football, perhaps it is better to take a break instead. We understand that it is frustrating, but there’s no need to lose even more than that. It is better to take some time off and then come back.
Final Recommendations
Summing things up, it’s certainly possible to engage in football betting and to wager responsibly in the process. That said, it’s far from effortless. Becoming a sharp football bettor is a long and difficult journey.
Study the strategies we’ve mentioned in depth. Learn the odds and the statistics behind the odds. Familiarise yourself with your favourite leagues, and read the news constantly. Keep our top tips in mind along the way. Best of luck!